Faustian pact or pragmatism? Austrian Greens form a government with right-wing conservatives.
One scandal, one snap election and several negotiations later, the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) and the Greens announced a coalition at the very start of 2020 to a mixed response.
In September’s election, Sebastian Kurz’s conservative ÖVP had secured 71 of the 92 seats required to command a majority in the National Council. Whilst the far-right FPÖ clung onto 31 seats — comfortably enough to form another majority government with Kurz. However, whilst Kurz knows that any continuing alliance with the far-right party, whose leader was at the centre of Ibiza-gate, could damage him politically, it remains the joker up his sleeve; none of the other Austrian parties want to see the FPÖ return to government.
The prospect of a German-style grand coalition between Kurz and the social democrats (SPÖ) was hit for six by hostile and toxic rhetoric aimed at each other during the campaign, leaving him with one alternative coalition partner to the FPÖ: the Greens who had increased their seats from 0 to 26.
The Greens, for their part, were in a tricky situation if they want to enter power for the first time or to simply keep the FPÖ out of government. Only by joining with Kurz could this happen, as a coalition of the Greens, the SPÖ and the centrist Neos party would only be able to muster 81 seats.
Forcing Kurz to rule as a minority government and dealing with them on a case by case basis would be a risky strategy for two main reasons. Firstly, the FPÖ would be keen on providing their support for a high price, and they have more in common with the ÖVP than other parties in the National Council. Secondly, as soon as there is talk of a rainbow minority coalition forming, it wouldn’t at all be surprising if Kurz bit the bullet and teamed up with the FPÖ; they did get 53.7% of the vote after all.
Not only would another ÖVP-FPÖ government be more right-wing than any ÖVP-Green one when it comes to policy areas such as immigration, but the FPÖ actually deny climate change as a hoax and wish for Austria to withdraw from key international agreements.
We have already seen some pledges since the ÖVP-Green agreement was announced: to produce 100% of Austria’s electricity from renewable sources by 2030, to introduce a €3 day ticket to make using public transport cheaper and, a tax on flights.
One policy announcement which sits far less comfortably with Green supporters is a ban on the wearing of Islamic headscarves by girls aged 14 and younger in schools (currently a ban is in place for girls aged 10 and below). This has led to criticisms for the Greens for agreeing to the coalition government and concerns that they have sold out.
These feelings may or may not be soothed by the actions of the Justice Ministry, who holds responsibility for how open the immigration system is. Therefore, all eyes will be on Alma Zadic, a Bosnian-born lawyer and Green, who is set to run it.
We don’t know what policies will be introduced which will cause Green supporters to feel some revulsion towards their party in government. What we do know is that Jetzt, a green party further to the left which has just lost its seats in the National Council, will be ready to offer a home to disillusioned Green voters. Given the Greens’ vote share increased by a whopping 10.1% (to 13.9% of the total) their voters may not be so loyal and forgiving if they feel the party has compromised too much, as they have a viable alternative in Jetzt at the next election.
Forming a coalition with the Greens is a smart move for Kurz who can show that he can work across the political divide and that his party isn’t just a toned-down version of the FPÖ. He will be keen on retaining some right-wing voters who gave him their support at this election, which likely means policies that appeal to them; policies that will almost certainly be at odds with the values of the Greens.
However, if the Greens threaten to leave the coalition or block too much of Kurz’s agenda, he always has the FPÖ ready to take their place. Not only could such a move be framed as ensuring national stability, but he knows that Green voters may not forgive their own party if they leave the government to be replaced by a party with neo-nazis in their ranks.
This is the first time the Greens are in office in Austria, which is news that we should be excited for. However, the headscarf announcement makes this historic event difficult to celebrate as we are all wondering whether this will be a taste of things to come.
Climate change being front and centre of Austrian politics is extremely exciting, and Austria could become an example for the rest of Europe in a short space of time. Whether this will lead to a further surge in Green votes at the next election is uncertain. At the moment we can only be certain of one person who will benefit: Sebastian Kurz.
